Rainy Day Candidate

THE ‘RAINY DAY’ CONUNDRUM

Since before 1970 the political strategist rule-of-thumb has been that in any election more people will vote Democrat than will vote Republican. As was reportedly said, “Republicans will lose if too many people vote.” This is just a generally accepted working theory, and is not of my creation.

As the theory goes, Republican voters are, statistically speaking, more likely to go out and vote. Reasons for this may be varied, and include things like age, education, and financial stability. The main reason is said to be these voters are motivated primarily by personal political philosophy.

Republicans are seen as “rainy day” voters who will show up even if it “rains bullets”. Rain being a metaphor for events such as negative media coverage, demonstrators blocking the path, their candidate falling in recent polls, unpredictable external events, and/or actual rain.

Democrats, as the theory goes, are less likely to vote if it ‘rains’. Not being as philosophically committed, they’re more likely to require candidate motivation – for or against. The best recent example of a not-rainy-day candidate is probably former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In a campaign where neither candidate polled ‘likable” Mrs. Clinton had a loyal following, but generated little “vote even if it is raining bullets’ enthusiasm.

As with most theories, though, it really comes down to the application. Who can motivate people to vote? Who is the one for whom voters will show up if it is raining bullets?

The most recent positive example of “rainy day not Republican” candidate being President Obama. He motivated his voters to point he’d have won regardless of opponent, and whatever the political weather.

In this observation, President Obama’s victory has been a motivating factor behind subsequent uptick in Republican ‘if it rains they’ll stay home’ voter suppression activities. Activities which some fear may even lead us to a shut down of the United States Post Office to avoid mass mail-in voting.

With all things considered, the pending choice being between...

…an at best low-key Joe Biden whom everyone sees as an old uncle in family; and,

an incumbent who is considered, according to polling, ineffective in wake of pandemic and recession –

Who will be the 2020 ‘rainy day’ candidate for POTUS?